Should weather forecasts be privatized?
Conditions are tempestuous for Uncle Sam’s weather watchers after the Trump Administration recently slashed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) workforce.
The federal agency includes the National Weather Service (NWS), which is responsible for tracking the weather with fancy gadgets like satellites and sensors that provide data for its sophisticated forecast models, to inform the forecasts you see on TV or on your phone. It also has experts researching the climate, as well as monitoring natural phenomena from hurricanes to geomagnetic storms. Now, the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is taking the agency by storm.
But the downsizing could be part of a bigger shakeup: Trump advisors have suggested weather forecasting should be outsourced to for-profit companies. But the idea of ending the government telling Americans when they need an umbrella for free would upend 150 years of tradition.
Why commercialize weather forecasts?
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who oversees the NOAA, said at his Senate confirmation hearing last month, that while he won’t dismantle the аgency, he thinks that NWS can “deliver the product more efficiently and less expensively.”
While it's unclear what Lutnick envisioned exactly, Project 2025, a policy blueprint that Trump has partially adopted that was produced by the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, called for a breakup of the NOAA, accusing it of fostering climate alarmism.
Though it doesn’t propose axing the National Weather Service entirely, it suggests it should “focus on its data-gathering services,” while leaving forecasting to private companies.
Project 2025 says that studies show companies produce more accurate weather reports than the government, which it states should utilize more private partnerships when it comes to reading the clouds.
What’s the current temperature at NOAA?
With a possible turn to the private sector forecasting looming, Musk’s chainsawing affected over 10% of NOAA’s workforce as DOGE works to cut government costs and eliminate what it considers waste and fraud.
DOGE removed 800 NOAA employees last week, while an additional 500 resigned voluntarily in exchange for several months of pay.
The government is also reportedly considering canceling leases on two NWS facilities, including a center in Maryland that is instrumental to forecasting. The administration told Axios that it's reviewing the leases, but not currently canceling them.
The cuts reportedly left the agency understaffed, hamstringing weather forecasting and halting certain operations like the launch of weather balloons at one Alaska facility, according to the New York Times.
Cloudy prospects and a chance of failure?
As NOAA shrinks, some weather wonks say that a private-public meteorology partnership already exists.
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